Weekly Mortgage Rate Update (April 4th, 2016) Hagerstown, MD Real Estate

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market.  This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events.  When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down.  When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.  Tracking these securities real-time is critical.  For more information about the rate market, contact me directly.  I’m among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Lower

Mortgage rates are trending unchanged this morning.  Last week the MBS market Improved by +94 bps.  This was enough to improve mortgage rates or  fees.  The MBS market was volatile last week.  Mortgage rates are at the best levels of the year.

This Week’s Rate Forecast: Neutral

Last week was all about the Fed and Oil. And this week it will be all about……Fed and Oil. Three things: These three items will have the largest impact on your intra-day and near-term pricing this week: 1) WTI Oil, 2) Fed and 3) ISM Services.

Fed:Wednesday, we will get the Minutes from the March FOMC meeting and we will be paying very close attention to the details. We actually have a fairly light week for domestic economic data (in terms of reports that have the gravitas move mortgage rates).

ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services 80% of our macro economy) is the only report with the weight to move the needle and will be closely watched.

Oil: Friday’s sell off could be a shift into lower prices for awhile as over supply concerns are keeping the pressure on WTI prices. This morning we are still in the 36 handle.

This Week’s Potential Volatility: Average

Lite week for economic data that has the potential to move mortgage rates. Oil and manufacturing numbers are the two main economic data points that we’ll be keeping an eye on.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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