News You'll Use

Mortgage rates for this week fell, with Fed speakers coming out less aggressive this week, sending rates lower. On Tuesday, Fed Governor Waller said that he could see a point where the Fed may start lowering rates if inflation continues to ease over the next three to five months. This was a big statement because Waller was the ringleader for the Bearish camp of the Fed, that was the most aggressive in fighting inflation and raising rates. The market is now pricing in rate cuts beginning in May of next year. That seems a bit aggressive, although it just depends on how the economic data falls next year. If the labor market holds up, that may be aggressive. If we start to see the unemployment rate rise rapidly, we can expect to see the Fed respond quickly next year. A positive side to the Fed having rates this high is that they have plenty of ammunition to use in the form of rate cuts. We will see the monthly jobs report next week, which will give us a better look into the health of the labor market.

• U.S. 10-year Treasury on Thursday afternoon is at 4.33%

• New Home Sales came in lower than analyst's expectations (679k vs expectations of 721k)

• FHFA House Price Index came in higher than analyst's expectations (0.6% m/m vs expectations of 0.5% m/m)

• Case-Shiller 20-city Index came in lower than analyst's expectations (0.67% m/m vs expectations of 0.8% m/m)

• Conference Board Consumer Confidence came in higher than analyst's expectations (102.0 vs expectations of 101.0)

• Personal Income came in-line with analyst's expectations (+0.2% m/m)

• Personal Spending came in-line with analyst's expectations (+0.2% m/m)

• PCE Deflator came in lower than analyst's expectations (0.0% m/m vs expectations of 0.1% m/m)

• PCE Core-Deflator came in-line with analyst's expectations (0.2% m/m)

• Pending Home Sales came in higher than analyst's expectations (-1.5% m/m vs expectations of -2.0% m/m)

• Initial Jobless Claims came in lower than analyst's expectations (209k claims vs expectations of 227k claims)

• Mortgage Applications rose 0.3% this week