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Mortgage rates continued to move higher this week due to stronger than expected data. A strong retail sales number this week showed that the economy is continuing at a very strong pace. Fed Chairman Powell also spoke on Thursday, and he was ambiguous on if he expects there to be further rate hikes. He noted the spike in U.S. Treasuries, specifically the 10-year, which tightens financial conditions and puts less pressure on the Fed to continue to raise rates. Powell also noted the strong economic data that has come out since their last meeting, and that if the economy is still running hotter than expected, they may need to consider further rate hikes. Feels like Powell will be cautious of hiking if rates stay near 5% on the U.S. 10-year treasury and mortgage rates are around 8%. If rates move lower, the 10-year back at around 4.25%, there may be an additional hike. All of that said, until we see a significant move lower in rates, we are going to see higher mortgage rates.

• U.S. 10-year Treasury on Thursday afternoon is at 4.97%

• Retail Sales came in higher than analyst's expectations (+0.7% m/m vs expectations of +0.3% m/m)

• Housing Starts came in lower than analyst's expectations (1.358 million starts vs expectations of 1.383 million starts)

• Housing Permits came in higher than analyst's expectations (1.473 million permits vs expectations of 1.453 million permits)

• Existing Home Sales came in higher than analyst's expectations (3.96 million vs expectations of 3.89 million)

• Initial Jobless Claims came in lower than analyst's expectations (198k claims vs expectations of 210k claims)

• Mortgage Applications fell 6.9% this week