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News You'll Use

Mortgage rates fell this week, as rates moved lower as the market digested a fair amount of slightly weaker data, with inflation data continuing to move lower, and labor market data is starting to show signs of weakness as well. Weakness in the JOLTS Job Openings number, along with a miss in the ADP job number were the two largest signs of the labor market cooling off. We also saw Q2 GDP data revised down, and the economy is starting to show signs that it might not be as overheated as we thought a few weeks ago. The Fed has raised rates high enough that rates are restrictive to slow the economy and have taken a data dependent approach. It would seem that the Fed is not being patient enough. Rates are restrictive, so, let's be a bit more patient in watching the economy and if a hike is needed then it is needed. Seems like once they hit restrictive it would have made sense to look to raise every quarter to give them plenty of time to evaluate the data. The Fed appears to not be raising rates in September, and the question is will they raise in November. It is likely that once the rest of the traders are back from summer break after Labor Day, we will get a better idea of where this market heads to next.

• US 10-year Treasury closed at 4.11% on Thursday afternoon

• FHFA House Price Index came in lower than analyst's expectations (+0.3% m/m vs expectations of +0.6% m/m)

• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI came in higher than analyst's expectations (+0.92% m/m vs expectations of +0.8% m/m)

• Conference Board Consumer Confidence came in lower than analyst's expectations (106.1 vs expectations of 116.0)

• JOLTS Job Openings came in lower than analyst's expectations (8.827 million openings vs expectations of 9.5mm openings

• ADP Employment Change came in lower than analyst's expectations (177k jobs vs expectations of 195k jobs)

• Personal Income came in lower than analyst's expectations (+0.2% m/m vs expectations of +0.3% m/m)

• PCE Core Deflator came in-line with analyst's expectations (+0.2% m/m)

• Initial Jobless Claims came in lower than analyst's expectations (228k claims vs expectations of 235k claims)

• Mortgage Applications rose 2.3% this week