News You'll Use

Mortgage rates fell this week, as rates moved lower with labor data and inflation data coming in line with market expectations. While we saw rates come down this week, rates have been churning higher since early May, and that pace has accelerated at the end of July. Without getting too technical, rates feel like they are at a pivotal point. They can test the October 2022 highs, and if they go past that level there will be a period of price discovery where the market determines what the new level of rates should be. They can move lower, away from the 2022 highs or rates can be stuck in this new, higher range. August feels like it will be a volatile month so we very well may see a fake out or two. The Fed is data dependent, and the path of rates will be determined mostly by inflation and labor data.

• U.S. 10-year Treasury closed at 4.08% on Thursday afternoon

• CPI came in-line with analyst's expectations (0.2% m/m)

• Core-CPI came in-line with analyst's expectations (0.2% m/m)

• Initial Jobless Claims came in higher than analyst's expectations (248k claims vs expectations of 230k claims)

• Mortgage Applications fell 3.1% this week