News You'll Use

Mortgage rates were mostly flat this week as we saw mixed data. The most important data point was the Q1 GDP, which showed the headline number coming in under expectations but also showed prices rising more than the market was expecting. Next week, we have the FOMC Meeting with the rate decision and Powell press conference. The market is assuming they raise rates by 25 bps at the meeting, and the question will be if they indicate they will pause their rate hikes, or if they set up the market for another hike in June. At the end of next week, we will see the April U.S. jobs report, which is the most important piece of labor market data we see each month. The Fed will continue to be aggressive if inflation remains high and if the labor market is tight with the unemployment rate low.

• US 10-year Treasury closed at 3.52% on Thursday afternoon

• Philly Fed Index came in lower than analyst's expectations (-22.8 vs expectations of -12.8)

• FHFA House Price Index came in higher than analyst's expectations (0.5% m/m vs expectations of -0.1%)

• CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI came in higher than analyst's expectations (0.06% m/m vs expectations of -0.35%)

• New Home Sales came in higher than market expectations (9.6% m/m vs expectations of -1.3%)

• Conference Board Consumer Confidence came in lower than market expectations (101.3 vs expectations of 104.0)

• Durable Goods Orders came in higher than market expectations (3.2% m/m vs expectations of 0.7%)

• Real Q1 GDP came in lower than market expectations (1.1% q/q vs expectations of 1.9%)

• Initial Jobless Claims came in below analyst's expectations (230k claims vs expectations of 245k claims)

• Mortgage Applications rose 3.7% this week