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Glocker Group Realty Results
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Market Matters

After a week of dismal economic data, focus shifted back to global headlines, specifically those regarding trade agreements between the U.S. and China. Optimism also sparked from across the pond as the EU and U.K. officials had constructive meetings over Brexit.

 

PPI

PPI, the inflation measure at the wholesale level, fell by -.3% on headline for September, with the core also falling -.3%. Both measures were much weaker than expectations of a +.1% and +.2% rise, respectively. The headline number is the biggest decline since September 2015, while the core is the largest decline since February 2015. YoY, prices fell -.4% to 1.4%, while the core piece is down -.3% to 2%.

 

CPI

Consumer price inflation showed slower price gains than expected in September with headline prices unchanged MoM. Energy prices fell 1.4%, food and beverage prices rose a soft 0.1%, and core prices rose just 0.1% (exp. +0.2%). On a YoY basis, headline inflation continued to grow 1.7% while core held at 2.4% growth.

 

JOLTS Job Openings

The JOLTS report in August decreased to 7.051mln from a downwardly revised 7.174mln back in July. Looking back over the last 17 consecutive months, openings have posted above the 7mln mark. Since the record of 7.626mln back in November 2018, openings have averaged 7.338mln. Overall, a fairly positive story on headline that suggests the labor market remains strong and setup for continued job growth.
 

Import/Export Prices

Import prices for September rose by +.2% vs. an upwardly revised -.2% decrease back in August (originally -.5%). On headline, prices are now down -1.6% YoY. If we strip out petroleum, prices were unchanged for the month, and are down -1.1% YoY. Overall, weakness is still due to the trade war that has continued to take a toll on global growth, especially commodity markets. Flipping over to exports, prices were down -.2% on the month, and are also now posting a decline of -1.6% YoY.

 

Consumer Sentiment

The Univ. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for October posted a 96.0 print vs. a 92.0 consensus. This result is up from the previously released 93.2 back in September. The survey showed both the current and future expectations as being better, while the closely-watched inflation expectations dropped by -.2% to 2.2%.